royal save cards

When successfully enchanting while using royal save cards, is the chance to get +1, +2 or +3 equal?
33.33..%?
If it's not equal, do we have any rough estimates?

 

Its korean random

 

and you are a troll

 

No, all enchant rate is based on korean random, same as compound rates

 

Rates for compounding jewels are published by Kr:
50, 40, 18 and 7 for 2, 3, 4 and 5 levels.

As for giant enchant scrolls I dont know but I'd assume +2 and +3 have lower chances.

 

If that's true, then why would someone sell tanzanite/cat/vital lv5 for less than 20b.
Even if you buy those boxes for 30m each, I think that on average, you would need more than 20b to make lv5.
I'll run some simulations with your numbers later today.

Same goes with royal cards,
Given the price of white royal cards, assuming +1/2/3 have same rate, and prices +10 twilight sets, even when LUC, maphr shirt +10, +10% scrolls are taken into account, it's still cheaper to buy already made set.

Maybe there are some specific items where you could profit from enchanting but right now, based on my simulations, I don't see any.
Or that's the case or there are some factors I am not aware.
Last time I made profit from enchanting was while it was still possible to get Enchant Weapon D's using mentee marks.
Using them I've made few bilions selling cheap D-grade bows enchanted to +10 to +15.

With these other items, it seems it's always cheaper to buy from fools not knowing how lucky they were when they made it.
But were they actually just lucky or is there more than meets the eye?

 

What do you mean why would somebody sell those for less than 20b? Isn't it obvious: no demand. Not many people want those crappy jewels. Most of the people who would get them, have them already. And there are plenty in the market because people are quitting en masse, and selling theirs. Also if you see a couple of those in the market, no interest from anybody, why not wait for a time and get it from the frustrated seller on a much lower price? And no, there were tests showing chances for Giant scrolls (chances for +1/2/3), which I don't care to look for right now but it was something like:
+1 = 65%
+2 = 25%
+3 = 10%

Don't quote me on that, but those are close to actual values.

 

Those numbers are officially published by ncsoft korea. It's simple, supply and demand. And prices are gradually decreasing with time because of more items entering the economy, but number of poeple willing to buy them remain the same or lower.

Also tanza/cat mainly for oly, literally noone else would bother investing even 20b in them if they do not do oly regularly. And as for vita - not sure, imo its better to buy powerlvl for 20 bil in that case

You just need to remember that it's still random. You can fail even with 90% success rate.

Enchanting is high reward high risk type of situation. Also keep in mind, that events drop the price of enchanting temporarily. You could buy BEWR for like 30kk a month ago, now 65kk. Sames goes for cards/freya/stones, even items go for lower prices.

 

Can you provide link to your source?

 

https://4r4m.com/ru/ncsoft-chances-live/
@BISTABIL As people said, supply and demand. Many people don't want crappy lvl 5 jewels especially now that server is PvE(gz Innova) but many people want crappy jewel chests so they can seal lvl3/4 jewels or make 5/6/enhanced brooches.
Also, many lvl3/4/5 jewels were generated by the last event without any compounding.

 

@TranpeGG
Are you referring to "Шанс усиления камней в Брошь" table?
If yes, why are there two separate tables?

Anyways, based on rates you provided 50/40/18/7 here are results of my simulations.
I barely passed statistics so I didn't calculate it using math but I rather brute-forced my way.

Resulting Jewel Level	Average number of used Lv1 Jewels
2	3
3	10
4	69
5	1053

In the simulations I've made 1 milion lv2 jewels, 1 milion lv3 jewels,.. and above you can see average numbers of lv1 jewels used.

So, if we assume compounding rates you gave me are correct, then I agree, demand and supply are main force behind low lv5 prices, at least for some jewel types.

Another good point someone made was that not all jewels are made by compounding, and yeah, that could contribute to price drop as other mentioned reasons.

 

http://php.e-repo.pl/paytowin.php

I DID calculate it using math and the results are a bit bigger - ~86 for level 4 and ~1200 for level 5, and the result for level5 aligns with what huge donators were saying about their compounding.

 

@Palkah
I am not sure what formula you came up with but for me it can't be correct that for lv2 you need x4 lv1.
Since rate here is 50% it can be shown easily if you start with 100 jewels lv1 and succeed every second time (50%) in compounding that you will end up having 33 lv2 jewels.

Consider this:

Number of Lv1 Jewels	Number of Lv2 Jewels	50% success rate
100	0	initial
98	1	success
97	1	failure
95	2	success
94	2	failure
...	...	...
5	32	success
4	32	failure
2	33	success
1	33	failure

It could be the case that you overlooked the fact that when you fail in compounding, you lose only one of the jewels and not both.
Do you see a problem in this reasoning?

 

You can also look at this concrete example from slightly different perspective.
Assume you have 128 (for sake of simplicity) jewels lv1.
Now create 64 pairs.
Compound those pairs.
Statistically you will have 32 lv2 and 32 lv1 (from those pairs where compounding failed).
From those 32 you can create 16 new pairs.
Statistically you will have 8 new lv2 (total 40) and 8 lv1.
...
And I guess this will be converging to 128/3

 

Compound rate of brooch jewels is korean random as everything else, friend made lvl 5 diamond with only 37 boxes(extreme luck) while i failed make lvl 5 obsidan with 900 boxes

 

It has nothing to do with "Korean random" stop talking...It simple statistics and luck

 

If you look at the code then I am recompounding the failed ones until there is less than 2 left on each stage. And my formula says 33 level2 for 100 level1

 

Can you link to your experiment if its up on the forums?

 

@Palkah
I've inspected the code and found a mistake in your algorithm that is generating this error which is eventually building up causing these differences.

I've shown that 99 lv1 should give you 33 lv2 (50% success rate) and your calculator is outputing 32.48 instead.
Here is where you made the mistake.

function attemptCompound(items,chance)
{
var up=0;
var failed=0;
up=((items/2)*chance);
failed=items/2 - up;
while (failed>=2) //<------
{
up=up+((failed/2)*chance);
failed=failed/2 -((failed/2)*chance);
}

return up;
}

You are mixing fractions and whole numbers.
You are calculating number of succeeded and failed jewels as fractions but at the same time you will stop compounding when you have exactly 2 failed jewels left.
To fix this issue, instead of checking if failed is greater or equal to 2, you should put positive fraction close to 0 (e.g. 0.001) to get better aproximation.

Just by a chance, I've found biggest erroreus example by puting 4 as number of boxes which generated this big (25%) error.

 

I used floats on purpose, makes more sense in statistical way because "2.8" says 2 and an 80% chance for 3rd, while "2" says 2 and nothing more. Also fractions make sense because I'm counting average number of obtained jewels, so on average a fraction can be expected. If you look at the loop, it will compound while failed>=2, so if failed jewels are equal to 2, it will still perform that last compound. To be clear about my naming convention: up->number of jewels of higher stage, failed->leftover jewels of current stage Fractions might not make sense for values like 10 boxes, I agree, but they give more meaningful results when we use large values, and let's be honest, with jewels we kinda need large values. I decided to put the "2" there because it's an important constraint.