https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lIY4y_XXjWl0cElSPCh3MeHM16to4u74bVPAMXsI9vI/edit?usp=sharing Based on chance rate - To receive at least x1 100% chance
Quick update, it looks that chances are calculated correctly, was watching stream of SomeSay7, he was enchanting 360 Talisman of Adens, only 1 talisman went +7 - So based on excel table chances: to have x1 100% +7 Talisman, user would need 480 Talisman of Adens. Me personally had similar situation ( which actually motivated me to build this excel sheet ) - When i spent 100£ on enchanting dragon belt and highest i got was +3 (this happened twice). So i spoke with clan members and they directed me to enchant table from 4 game forums and i decided to try calculate it, and what i found was quite interesting. Now please dont get me wrong, you dont need to buy 100000 belts, its literal chance % based on 4game given calculation, if 50% is the rate then user have 1/2 chances to break it then it steps into next calculation and so on. The way i see Chance vs Luck - Maybe I'm wrong, but hear me out: Chance - Mathematically you can achieve it Luck - In which order you will get it Example: if chance says: you will need 500 items to make at least 1 item to certain enchant, then Luck is telling in which order: You can get your enchant with 1st item or 399th or 500th. So if list is saying: you will need 25 000 items, chance is that you get it for sure but somewhere in between 25 000 tries, it could be 1, could be 20 000 or 25 000th - Hope that makes sense. Lets Say This Video: Guy Bought 300 + 60 talisman of adens, from beginning i Spammed that you will have none at +8 or maybe x1 +7 - On Which nobody believed me. but at the end of video you can see I was right, based on amount he bought he had only 71.43% chance to even get single talisman to +7 why 480 is needed to get it 100% 360 he bought (missing 120) Results to: 28.57% is missing (100 - 28.57 - 71.43% chance to get +7) For +8 3360 is Needed to get atleast x1 to +8 360 he bought (missing 3000) which means he was not even close to get x1 to +8, because 3000 different times was needed Now if we apply luck, it depends on which order this happens, as i mentioned before. So if Player spent only x1 talisman and got +8 straight away, means that: Within 3360 Chances, his luck found 1 path to get it to +8, thats why i think users are lucky to have enchanted items. Next Video: Guy Buys x26 Talisman of Aden, based on excel it tells us that he maximum will get x1 +5 40%3You Will Need 3 Talisman of Aden +4 to make x1 Talisman of Aden +524 Which says, user will need atleast 24 Talisman of Adens to make x1 to +5 At the end of video, user only received x1 +5 Talisman On this video: On minute: 8:38 guy says: "I was not lucky, from 10 pendants only 1 went to +5" - lets check the excel table : 40%3You Will Need 3 Fire/Land Pendant +4 to make x1 Fire/Land Pendant +5630%4You Will Need 4 Fire/Land Pendant +5 to make x1 Fire/Land Pendant +624 And it says: 6 pendants is required to make x1 to +5 and 24 pendants is required to make x1 to +6 ( he was pretty far of ) Same video, lets go to 9:17 - Guy buys 17 Talisman of Adens and he gets x1 to +5, excel says: 2You Will Need 2 Talisman of Aden +3 to make x1 Talisman of Aden +483You Will Need 3 Talisman of Aden +4 to make x1 Talisman of Aden +524 8 is needed to make atleast x1 to +4 24 is needed to make atleast x1 to +5 But he was lucky, because out of 24 chances, he got this 1 lucky time. As mentioned before luck is in which order something happens. That luck couldve happened with 1st Run, or 2nd run or 20th run. Lets take another example: Same video: 18:37 - Guy purchased 17 belt of Dragons, but he only got +3, lets look at the excel table: 40%3You Will Need 3 Dragon Belt +2 to make x1 Dragon Belt +3 at 100% Rate1235%3You Will Need 3 Dragon Belt +3 to make x1 Dragon Belt +4 at 100% Rate36 Excel says: 12 belts is needed to make atleast x1 to +3 (which he did achieve), but for +4 he would've needed 36 belts (to make x1 100% to +4), so he was not even close enough. He only had 28.31% chance to make +4. The way i see difference between Luck and Chance: Chance - Red Line: 1 to 100% Luck - In which order (moment you press Enchant)
I like your passion,i hope this wont make u write other 10 pages of "mathematical" nonsense while u tear away your hair but..this is so wrong
I wonder if the enchant success rate bonus for the top 1 Dwarf in the server does affect the enchant "chances" for this items.
Even if you have 5000 talismans of adens, it still isn't 100% that you make even +7. Your math is wrong, your assumptions are wrong. But if it gets you going and gives you pleasure, go for it.
Can you make a calculation to magic weapon B grade to +16? Why everybody is blaming the chances here? ...
I found my mistake, which was rounding up constantly, fixed now: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lIY4y_XXjWl0cElSPCh3MeHM16to4u74bVPAMXsI9vI/edit#gid=0 Nov 24, 2019 If you send me enchant chances i can make it, but i dont know if classic or essence have released official enchant chances
No it's you who are wrong You can beat any RNG only through the sheer amount of money, and therefore only through the sheer amount of adena when we are talking about+6 and over the luck doesn't count, well simply put the luck doesn't even exist if you want an item enchanted lets say to +8 eg belt pendant aden talisman the only thing you need it's to put on the table more money eg i did an aden talisman +7 spending 180 € and non only I get a +7 but i've got 3 +7 The only thing you will need, apart from the adena, it's to make at least 10 of the very same item to + a grade below eg. to be sure you will get an aden talisman +7 you will have to start from 10 +6 to be sure you will get a dragon belt +5 you will have to start from 10 belts +4 now you can get lucky and get multiple talismans +7 or unlucky and get just one ofc the more basic items you will need [10 + a grade below] the more money you will need Ofc the only item really worth of beeing oe past 5 it's the aden talisman because of the +50 % exp bonus all the other items are totally unworthy of beeing oe past +4 because they give stats bonuses you will get anyway from lvling and 4 to 6 points on stats don't affect that much any gameplay in any videogame the only exception to this main rule are the brooch jewels lvl 5 and lvl 6. Eg an aden talisman +7 gives to you the same exp bonuses you can get from a dragon pendant lvl 3 + a cloack +6 for 1/4 of their total cost
Guys if u like to calculate probability like in primary school is fine,is a free world,but that's wrong if u wanna give it a "mathematical dignity". But if u start with the assumption that a 50% chance means that if u have 2 items u have 100% chance of make it u are already even out of primary school knowledge.
Maths in here doesn't exist it like sending any RNG in tilt with the sheer amount of numbers given to you by the sheer amount of money on ncwest doing a legendary cloack +20 was mathematically impossible but tevas did it with more than 250.000 usd $ instead of bashing the casino's slot machine with an hammer you are bashing it with the sheer amount of numbers it's like the RNG machine isn't able to calculate over a certain amounts of tries.
Tested 6th time, works like charm, predicted to clannies exactly what the outcome will be and it was exactly same way :S - Maybe im just lucky for 6 times in row yesterday one of clan members tried it, and prediction was correct, that would be 7th, but i did not record
No Miyako you are pretty right because you count the increasing number of basic items needed to get a certain oe so you go near the money needed ot obtain it but as i've said it's pointless to get a belt +5 when you can have the same result doing 4 more levels you have to do anyway the only items worth to have are aden talisman +7 [no more] jewels lvl 5 [no more] as for the rest i'm not saying you can go around naked but almost Eg in the first 3 weeks of l2 essence eu there was a massive mathematical debate about getting a c bow +12 or get a b bow +7 because with the c bow +12 you spend only 1 soulshot those mathematical geniouses din't put into account the + ss damage 4.80 on a c bow +12 5.60 on a b bow +7 so all purchased a c bow +12 going after the matematicians ending up spending more ss x day now all are selling that very same c bow +12 and trying to buy a b bow +7 Miyako your calculations are right the money needed to get a certaing oe item are really near but you made a big mistake first of all you have to ask to yourself which benefits is going to have a player getting that item oe to that point and the answer is ZERO take 2 players with the very same gear player A with one more lvl will always beat player B one lvl below so all in all you have to calculate how much money we need to get to 85 and which items can help us to get there faster comparing the +% bonus with its cost. Edit: sorry but i don't talk nor understand russian so it took to me a ton of time to re-find a russian video The second big mistake you've done Miyako is that you didn't consider, at all, the safe scrolls, both a and b grade both for weapons and armors As you can clearly see from this video with the death knight update will be implemented the safe scrolls aka anyone can get an armor of any grade to+10 safely and any weapon of any grade to +16 there are also the legendary scrolls [so they were called on ncwest] so in theory we can get any armor to +16 safely and any weapon to +21 safely Fact is that everyone who oe an armor or a weapon even to to +5 has to be recovered in an hospital because he took an unnecessary risk
I wont argue, had nothing to do at weekend and tried to generate a table based on information 4game has given. For me is interesting because i can actually calculate how much adena/money i would need to get certain item. Should i continue to enchant or should i leave item for next time when i get something, for example: I want +4 belt (thats my target), now i can see i need 24 belts, after a while once i got +4 and i still have belts left, i put it a side. because based on chance, i would break all the rest belts or lets say i got 2 x +3 belts = im 1 short to get +4 belt, so i put it aside until i have atleast 4 x +3 belts. I did not start this topic to force you something, im just sharing my view of how enchanting works - obviously you might have different idea and would be awesome to challenge it Test it your self (when next time you enchant something, count how many items you got and have a look) - to get at least x1 +4 dragon belt (at 100% rate), you would need 9 belts for it. Based on luck you can get it straight away.
Not trying to argue,not everybody must have studied math. But your idea of probability is wrong,no offence,and i see your general idea of math is wrong,no offence again,math is not based on tests,is not medicine. This said,your calculations of probability are wrong but who knows what algorithm they use to generate chances on enchantment,if there are "tricks" or ways that change that chance,nobody knows about this so can be different by what math says and if you're lucky and algorithm was written by a 10 year old baby (no offence again,joking) maybe it's working even like u say! Im just saying this cos ppl could take your assumptions as right and waste even money,not for blamin you.
No iApache Miyako's calculations are pretty right but he's doing an astonishing work on the wrong subject Lets say we are already with the death knight update in EU [and not in russia first] we have the safe scrolls so to oe an armor or a weapon isn't an issue anymore Now we have all access to the same gear Miyako is doing his astonishing calculation on a +4 belt = bonus exp 0% +3 stat points cost 25 € Miyako should do a cost calculation about how much of a lvl 76 you can get for sure [not risking anything] with those 25 € with saysha storms on and off because 6 lvls = 6 stat points to distribute between two traits [with the tats you lower one so you can compensate this way] and that's the double compared to a belt+4 withoug any risk at all aka with the death knight update all of us will get the same gear the p2w items are only the aden talisman the jewels lvl 5 and to some extent the dragon pendant lvl 3 and the hats and the cloacks +20 % exp all the other p2w items are just baits or trash Eg lets consider a talisman of eva +4 cost 25 € now open your skill tab and look how much more mdef you will get going one single lvl up you will get more mdef doing 1 single lvl than oe an eva to +4 Aka lvl up invest your money in the lvling up and save the rest for the safe scrolls. So I would really like Miyako employing his talent on the right subject
Think is great idea, would need to gather base stat information from items ( and ench bonuses ) - now i understand what you mean, was bit confused earlier on.
In this video you can see the upcoming safe scrolls even better normal scrolls up to +2 improved scrolls from + 3 [max 3 upgrade eg +5] sewa from +4 or +5 to +7 hqewa from +7 to +16 + there is another scroll with a red frame [on ncwest they were called legendary] from +16 to +21 same goes for the armor of any grade max +16 Another note with a sort of biscuit you can improve your exp by 456% Another note there is a pack in the l2store and purchasing it you may have a b grade weapon +8 of your choice so yeah whoever oe a weapon was and he's mad cuz with the death knight update a b weapon +8 does cost a few bucks
Guys believe what u want,i mean,ppl believe in flat earth and homeopathy,this is nothing. Anyway,if u want to play with math and enchantments,assuming that game is not somehow broken,my guess is that u need to use this Spoiler In the case u mentioned,with 360 hats u should have 43% to get a +7 and 57% to dont get it. As u can see from the formula,there is no such thing as "mathematical 100% chance" of getting it.
